: The Truel : the answer
: Your best bet is to fire your first shot into the air
and let the other contenders
: deal with themselves first. Here's out things will then play out :
: It's best to not hit either of your opponents in the
first round, as if you hit/killed
: either of them, your chances would be 50% or 0% of surviving the next
shot
: (depending on if you killed the expert or the 50-50 shooter).
: By firing into the air, you force the 2nd shooter to
address his most serious
: threat: the expert-shot. If the 2nd shooter misses, then the expert
will shoot
: and kill him. If he hits, then you can take your chances with the
50-50 shooter.
: After the first round, one of the your two opponents
will have been taken out
: of contention (either the 50-50 shooter succeeds in hitting the expert-shot,
or
: the expert-shot takes out his most threatening opponent, the 50-50
shot).
: At the beginning of the second round, you're either
face sure death with the
: expert-shooter, or 50-50 chance with the 2nd shooter. Either way,
you've
: survived one round (not necessarily guaranteed otherwise). At the
beginning
: of the second round, the outlook is decidedly better for your ultimate
survival,
: as you only have one contender to deal with. Still, it's not a situation
you might
: fancy myself in, as there's a good chance you won't make it out alive.
: © 2001, Aaron Clauset
: Disclaimer: This puzzle is not of my devising. It was
posed in the 40th issue
: of the AWADmail as a classical mathematical example of a 'trilemma.'
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